Today Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sirens-warning-incoming-rockets-sound-around-gaza-near-tel-aviv-2023-10-07/
Lots of death on both sides. Hamas gets military aid from Iran. Israel gets military aid from the U.S.A. Everything looks balanced so far. Two groups killing each other; two groups supplying the killers.
Equilibrium? Balance of Nature? No problem, right?
Since we are involved, we have the power to make changes. Biden says we are rock solid behind Israel. That has been our position for 75 years. Shall we expect a better outcome in 75 more years doing more of the same thing?
What if we withdrew aid from Israel, or if we increased aid? Would that be worth trying, or should we just leave well enough alone?
Does it matter who has nuclear weapons in this case? Well, so far, only Israel and we do. The nuclear deal with Iran that Obama negotiated was ended by Trump. There is risk that Iran may develope nuclear weapons in the near future. Should we just wait and see, or does this give us leverage to make a “grand bargain” with Iran, Hamas and Israel?
Thought experiment: what if we or someone could broker a deal that —
Iran stops nuclear weapons development
Israel disarms her nuclear weapons
Iran stops her military aid to Hamas
we stop our military aid to Israel
U.N. creates a durable 2-state solution for Israel/Palestine/Gaza
Israel would surely support 1 & 3, Iran, the 2 & 4. We like 4 & 5. Palestine/Gaza and Hamas like 5. Are there incentives that could accomplish all this?
Worth talking about? Or let’s just stay rock solid for the next 75 years as is?
Netanyahu is far to the right and strongly supports settlements in the West Bank, etc. We actually only support #5 but #5 is DOA in Israel. I don’t see #2 occurring, but use of tactical nuclear is an unknown. Christian Zionism will not allow #4. Nobody is in a position to change Iran. Israel might succeed in eliminating the West Bank, but if they invade and eliminate Gaza things will get very bad. Hopefully they will be moderate. Otherwise I see much more bloodshed.
–John M.